Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Cae Baker, Penrhyncoch, Ceredigion
The Footlab model makes Mold Alexandra the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Penrhyncoch. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Penrhyncoch (1,540) and Mold Alexandra (1,625).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penrhyncoch have 7 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats; Mold Alexandra have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newtown AFC(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Holyhead Hotspur(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guilsfield(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caersws(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Mountain(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Penrhyncoch win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Mold Alexandra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Penrhyncoch 3-1 Mold Alexandra | FAW Championship |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Mold Alexandra 2-2 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Penrhyncoch 0-0 Mold Alexandra | FAW Championship |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Mold Alexandra 1-2 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Penrhyncoch 1-3 Mold Alexandra | Welsh Cup |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Penrhyncoch 2-2 Mold Alexandra | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penrhyncoch score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mold Alexandra score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrhyncoch | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Mold Alexandra | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penrhyncoch sit 15th in FAW Championship (0 points from 3 matches) and Mold Alexandra sit 6th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 15 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra?
- The Footlab model makes Mold Alexandra the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Penrhyncoch.
- Where and when is Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra played?
- Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Cae Baker, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.