Caersws vs Denbigh Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Recreation Ground, Caersws, Powys
The Footlab model makes Caersws the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Denbigh Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caersws vs Denbigh Town?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Caersws (1,585) and Denbigh Town (1,583).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caersws have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Denbigh Town have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhyl(away) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mold Alexandra(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Denbigh Town(home) | 6-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Caersws win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Denbigh Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caersws 6-0 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Denbigh Town 3-2 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Caersws 1-1 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Denbigh Town 2-0 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Caersws 1-0 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Denbigh Town 4-1 Caersws | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caersws vs Denbigh Town on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caersws score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Denbigh Town score 1.4 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caersws | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Denbigh Town | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caersws sit 10th in FAW Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Denbigh Town sit 12th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Caersws | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caersws vs Denbigh Town?
- The Footlab model makes Caersws the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Denbigh Town.
- Where and when is Caersws vs Denbigh Town played?
- Caersws vs Denbigh Town is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Recreation Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.