Holyhead Hotspur vs Bala Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The New Oval, Holyhead, Isle of Anglesey
The Footlab model makes Bala Town the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Holyhead Hotspur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Holyhead Hotspur vs Bala Town?
Bala Town starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (1,746 vs 1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Holyhead Hotspur have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Bala Town have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mold Alexandra(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruthin Town(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bangor 1876(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Holyhead Hotspur win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bala Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2016 | Holyhead Hotspur 1-3 Bala Town | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Holyhead Hotspur vs Bala Town on Feb 6, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Holyhead Hotspur score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bala Town score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holyhead Hotspur | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Bala Town | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Holyhead Hotspur sit 13th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Bala Town sit 4th (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bala Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Holyhead Hotspur vs Bala Town?
- The Footlab model makes Bala Town the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Holyhead Hotspur.
- Where and when is Holyhead Hotspur vs Bala Town played?
- Holyhead Hotspur vs Bala Town is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The New Oval, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.