Derby vs Norwich: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 3, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Norwich. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Derby (1,880) and Norwich (1,910).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Norwich have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cambridge United(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derby win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Norwich win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Norwich 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Derby 1-0 Norwich | Championship |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Norwich 1-1 Derby | Championship |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Derby 2-3 Norwich | Championship |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Derby 0-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2020 | Norwich 0-1 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Norwich score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Norwich | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 16th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Norwich sit 23rd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 | Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Norwich?
- The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Norwich.
- Where and when is Derby vs Norwich played?
- Derby vs Norwich is played on November 3, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.