Wolves vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands
The Footlab AI model makes Wolves the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Wolves wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wolves vs Derby?
Wolves starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (2,078 vs 1,923).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wolves vs Derby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wolves
4-2-3-1- 10A. Armstrong
- 7André
- 36M. Mane
- 28Fer López
- 21Rodrigo Gomes
- 5M. Munetsi
- 34N. Djiga
- 3Hugo Bueno
- 2K. Trippier
- 37L. Krejčí
- 1José Sá
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wolves have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Derby have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Everton(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Wolves wins, 0 draws, 3 Derby wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2018 | Wolves 2-0 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 12, 2017 | Derby 0-2 Wolves | Championship |
| Apr 29, 2017 | Derby 3-1 Wolves | Championship |
| Nov 5, 2016 | Wolves 2-3 Derby | Championship |
| Feb 27, 2016 | Wolves 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 18, 2015 | Derby 4-2 Wolves | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Wolves score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wolves sit 9th in Championship (14 points from 9 matches) and Derby sit 23rd (6 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Wolves vs Derby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wolves vs Derby?
- The Footlab AI model makes Wolves the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Derby.
- Where and when is Wolves vs Derby played?
- Wolves vs Derby is played on November 24, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Molineux Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.