Derby vs QPR: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 32Kick-off on February 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes QPR the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If QPR wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs QPR?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Derby (1,879) and QPR (1,910).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs QPR
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
QPR
4-3-3- 17K. Poku
- 11P. Smyth
- 16R. Burrell
- 5R. Edwards
- 24N. Madsen
- 18G. Kamara
- 3J. Dunne
- 6J. Clarke-Salter
- 2K. Adamson
- 27A. Mbengue
- 1P. Charles
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:24 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; QPR have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Derby wins, 0 draws, 3 QPR wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | QPR 2-3 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Derby 1-0 QPR | Championship |
| Feb 14, 2025 | QPR 4-0 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Derby 2-0 QPR | Championship |
| Apr 18, 2022 | QPR 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Nov 29, 2021 | Derby 1-2 QPR | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; QPR score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| QPR | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (6 points from 9 matches) and QPR sit 8th (14 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Derby vs QPR?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs QPR?
- The Footlab AI model makes QPR the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Derby.
- Where and when is Derby vs QPR played?
- Derby vs QPR is played on February 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.