Watford vs Cardiff: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 32Kick-off on February 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Vicarage Road, Watford
The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Watford vs Cardiff?
Cardiff starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (2,008 vs 1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Watford have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Cardiff have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hansa Rostock(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Watford win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Cardiff win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | Cardiff 1-1 Watford | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Watford 1-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Watford 0-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Cardiff 1-1 Watford | Championship |
| Apr 19, 2023 | Watford 1-3 Cardiff | Championship |
| Nov 2, 2022 | Cardiff 1-2 Watford | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Watford score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff score 2.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Cardiff | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Watford sit 7th in Championship (4 points from 2 matches) and Cardiff sit 12th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Watford vs Cardiff?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Watford.
- Where and when is Watford vs Cardiff played?
- Watford vs Cardiff is played on February 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Vicarage Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.