QPR vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)MATRADE Loftus Road, London
The Footlab AI model makes QPR the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If QPR wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win QPR vs Derby?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate QPR (1,952) and Derby (1,926).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for QPR vs Derby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
QPR
4-4-2- 16R. Burrell
- 15A. Lloyd
- 24N. Madsen
- 17K. Poku
- 20H. Vale
- 18G. Kamara
- 5R. Edwards
- 27A. Mbengue
- 3J. Dunne
- 19D. Cirkin
- 1P. Charles
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 26R. Hedges
- 4D. Ozoh
- 18C. Taylor
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 23J. Ward
- 1J. Widell Zetterström
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, QPR have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat; Derby have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 QPR wins, 0 draws, 3 Derby wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | QPR 2-3 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Derby 1-0 QPR | Championship |
| Feb 14, 2025 | QPR 4-0 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Derby 2-0 QPR | Championship |
| Apr 18, 2022 | QPR 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Nov 29, 2021 | Derby 1-2 QPR | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
QPR score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Derby | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
QPR sit 6th in Championship (13 points from 8 matches) and Derby sit 22nd (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
A question about QPR vs Derby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for QPR vs Derby?
- The Footlab AI model makes QPR the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Derby.
- Where and when is QPR vs Derby played?
- QPR vs Derby is played on October 14, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at MATRADE Loftus Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.