Derthona vs Valenzana: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Fausto Coppi, Tortona
The Footlab AI model makes Derthona the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Valenzana. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derthona wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derthona vs Valenzana?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Derthona (1,639) and Valenzana (1,644).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derthona vs Valenzana
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derthona
Not enough data to predict the Derthona lineup.
Valenzana
Not enough data to predict the Valenzana lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derthona have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Valenzana have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Chisola(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alessandria(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Millesimo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Ligorna(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sanremese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Saluzzo(home) | 3-2 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Fezzanese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Borgosesia(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Asti(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Derthona win, 1 draw, 0 Valenzana wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Derthona 1-1 Valenzana | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Valenzana 1-2 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Derthona score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Valenzana score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derthona | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Valenzana | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derthona sit 3rd in Serie D - Girone A (11 points from 6 matches) and Valenzana sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derthona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 4 |
A question about Derthona vs Valenzana?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derthona vs Valenzana?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derthona the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Valenzana.
- Where and when is Derthona vs Valenzana played?
- Derthona vs Valenzana is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Fausto Coppi, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.