Desenzano Calvina vs Alcione: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 29Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Tre Stelle, Desenzano del Garda
The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Alcione. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Desenzano Calvina vs Alcione?
Desenzano Calvina starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,916 vs 1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Desenzano Calvina have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Alcione have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 31, 2026 | Scafatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Renate(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Novara(home) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Lumezzane(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Desenzano Calvina win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Alcione win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2023 | Alcione 2-1 Desenzano Calvina | Serie D - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 6, 2023 | Desenzano Calvina 1-1 Alcione | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Alcione 1-0 Desenzano Calvina | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina on May 14, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Desenzano Calvina score 1.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Alcione score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desenzano Calvina | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Alcione | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Desenzano Calvina sit 10th in Serie C - Girone A (1 points from 1 matches) and Alcione sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcione | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Desenzano Calvina vs Alcione?
- The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Alcione.
- Where and when is Desenzano Calvina vs Alcione played?
- Desenzano Calvina vs Alcione is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Tre Stelle, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.