Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 10Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni
The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Alcione. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina?
Desenzano Calvina starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,938 vs 1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcione have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Desenzano Calvina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Renate(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Novara(home) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Lumezzane(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 31, 2026 | Scafatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Alcione win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Desenzano Calvina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2023 | Alcione 2-1 Desenzano Calvina | Serie D - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 6, 2023 | Desenzano Calvina 1-1 Alcione | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Alcione 1-0 Desenzano Calvina | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina on May 14, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Alcione score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Desenzano Calvina score 1.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcione | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Desenzano Calvina | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alcione sit 1st in Serie C - Girone A (3 points from 1 matches) and Desenzano Calvina sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcione | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Desenzano Calvina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina?
- The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Alcione.
- Where and when is Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina played?
- Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ernesto Breda, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.