Desenzano Calvina vs Dolomiti Bellunesi: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 9Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Tre Stelle, Desenzano del Garda
The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Dolomiti Bellunesi. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Desenzano Calvina vs Dolomiti Bellunesi?
Desenzano Calvina starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (1,916 vs 1,700).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Desenzano Calvina have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Dolomiti Bellunesi have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 31, 2026 | Scafatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Treviso(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Virtus Verona(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hellas Verona(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Desenzano Calvina score 1.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Dolomiti Bellunesi score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desenzano Calvina | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Dolomiti Bellunesi | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Desenzano Calvina sit 10th in Serie C - Girone A (1 points from 1 matches) and Dolomiti Bellunesi sit 7th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Desenzano Calvina vs Dolomiti Bellunesi?
- The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Dolomiti Bellunesi.
- Where and when is Desenzano Calvina vs Dolomiti Bellunesi played?
- Desenzano Calvina vs Dolomiti Bellunesi is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Tre Stelle, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.