Novara vs Cittadella: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 9Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola, Novara
The Footlab model makes Novara the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Cittadella. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novara vs Cittadella?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Novara (1,758) and Cittadella (1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novara have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Cittadella have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juventus U23(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcione(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pergolettese(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 2-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luparense(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Padova(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cremonese(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Novara win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Cittadella win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Novara 0-1 Cittadella | Serie C - Girone A |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Cittadella 2-2 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 30, 2020 | Cittadella 3-1 Novara | Coppa Italia |
| Feb 11, 2018 | Cittadella 1-3 Novara | Serie B |
| Sep 16, 2017 | Novara 1-0 Cittadella | Serie B |
| Feb 11, 2017 | Novara 1-1 Cittadella | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Novara score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cittadella score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Cittadella | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Novara sit 18th in Serie C - Girone A (0 points from 1 matches) and Cittadella sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cittadella | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Novara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novara vs Cittadella?
- The Footlab model makes Novara the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Cittadella.
- Where and when is Novara vs Cittadella played?
- Novara vs Cittadella is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.