Dinamo Tbilisi vs Saburtalo: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Saburtalo the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Dinamo Tbilisi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dinamo Tbilisi vs Saburtalo?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Dinamo Tbilisi (1,680) and Saburtalo (1,776).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dinamo Tbilisi have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Saburtalo have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rustavi(home) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Spaeri(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(away) | 2-7 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Guria(away) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Jagiellonia(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(away) | 3-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Larne(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Larne(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dinamo Tbilisi win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Saburtalo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Saburtalo 1-0 Dinamo Tbilisi | Super Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi 2-0 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Saburtalo 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Saburtalo 1-0 Dinamo Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Dinamo Tbilisi 2-1 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 20, 2025 | Saburtalo 1-0 Dinamo Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga |
Last archived meeting: Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi on Jun 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dinamo Tbilisi score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Saburtalo score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Tbilisi | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Saburtalo | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dinamo Tbilisi sit 2nd in Erovnuli Liga (34 points from 21 matches) and Saburtalo sit 3rd (34 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 25 | 34 |
| 3 | Saburtalo | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dinamo Tbilisi vs Saburtalo?
- The Footlab model makes Saburtalo the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Dinamo Tbilisi.
- Where and when is Dinamo Tbilisi vs Saburtalo played?
- Dinamo Tbilisi vs Saburtalo is played on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.