Samgurali vs Saburtalo: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili
The Footlab AI model makes Samgurali the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Saburtalo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Samgurali wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,846 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samgurali vs Saburtalo?
On Elo ratings, Samgurali has 1,602 points and Saburtalo 1,734.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Samgurali vs Saburtalo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Samgurali
4-1-4-1- 9T. Gaprindashvili
- 10L. Gilmore
- 20Vinicius Vianna
- 8I. Bidzinashvili
- 26Z. Iashvili
- 33Isac Martins
- 4O. Patarkatsishvili
- 13L. Gegetchkori
- 27L. Shergelashvili
- 25M. Shatirishvili
- 21A. Siukaev
Saburtalo
4-3-3- 9A. Dzagania
- 10Z. Natchkebia
- 17S. Ende
- 19N. Sikharulashvili
- 8B. Kardava
- 18Lucas Brune
- 5J. Jinjolava
- 25A. Amisulashvili
- 4V. Selimović
- 3P. Cancar
- 31G. Makaridze
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 02:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samgurali have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Saburtalo have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 2-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 2-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(away) | 2-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Dila(home) | 1-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | St. Truiden(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 1-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 2-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Dila(home) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Samgurali win, 0 draws, 5 Saburtalo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Saburtalo 2-1 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 25, 2026 | Samgurali 3-2 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Saburtalo 2-1 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Saburtalo 2-0 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Samgurali 0-1 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 11, 2025 | Saburtalo 2-1 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
Last archived meeting: Saburtalo vs Samgurali on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samgurali score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Saburtalo score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samgurali | 1.5 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Saburtalo | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samgurali sit 6th in Erovnuli Liga (38 points from 29 matches) and Saburtalo sit 4th (49 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Saburtalo | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 31 | 49 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 52 | 38 |
A question about Samgurali vs Saburtalo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samgurali vs Saburtalo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Samgurali the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Saburtalo.
- Where and when is Samgurali vs Saburtalo played?
- Samgurali vs Saburtalo is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.