Gagra vs Rustavi: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)David Petriashvili Arena, Tbilisi
The Footlab AI model makes Rustavi the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rustavi wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gagra vs Rustavi?
Rustavi starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,693 vs 1,576).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gagra vs Rustavi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gagra
4-4-2- 30G. Goshteliani
- 11S. Zoidze
- 25Wanderson
- 33L. Gurchiani
- 8I. Skrypnyk
- 6M. Tsintsadze
- 40Claudinei
- 14Z. Tchavtchanidze
- 2Augusto
- 7P. Borges
- 1O. Vorobey
Rustavi
4-3-3- 9Jean
- 10P. Osei
- 5Kevin William Ceijas
- 22Y. Nakano
- 13A. Gujabidze
- 7K. S. Abdul
- 3V. Patsatsia
- 19N. Chikovani
- 4David
- 2S. Andghuladze
- 21P. Beruashvili
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gagra have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Rustavi have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Samgurali(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(away) | 0-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Dila(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dila(home) | 3-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Samtredia(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Spaeri(away) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Gagra wins, 1 draw, 1 Rustavi win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi 3-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Gagra 1-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Rustavi 1-2 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Nov 1, 2021 | Gagra 2-0 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 10, 2021 | Rustavi 0-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 24, 2021 | Gagra 3-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gagra score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Rustavi score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gagra | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Rustavi | 1.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gagra sit 8th in Erovnuli Liga (29 points from 28 matches) and Rustavi sit 1st (49 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 24 | 49 |
| 8 | Gagra | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 40 | 29 |
A question about Gagra vs Rustavi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gagra vs Rustavi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rustavi the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Gagra vs Rustavi played?
- Gagra vs Rustavi is played on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at David Petriashvili Arena, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.