Diyala vs Erbil: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 38Kick-off on May 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Al Ba'quba Stadium, Ba'quba
The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Diyala. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,456 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Diyala vs Erbil?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 200-point Elo edge (1,676 vs 1,476).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Diyala vs Erbil
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Diyala
Not enough data to predict the Diyala lineup.
Erbil
Not enough data to predict the Erbil lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Diyala have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Erbil have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Naft(away) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gharraf(home) | 3-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Erbil(away) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Ajman(away) | 4-5 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Diyala win, 1 draw, 3 Erbil wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Erbil 2-0 Diyala | Iraqi League |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Erbil 2-0 Diyala | Iraqi League |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Diyala 1-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| May 12, 2025 | Diyala 1-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Erbil 2-1 Diyala | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Diyala score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Erbil score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diyala | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Erbil | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Diyala sit 11th in Iraqi League (9 points from 9 matches) and Erbil sit 4th (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 11 | Diyala | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 9 |
A question about Diyala vs Erbil?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Diyala vs Erbil?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Diyala.
- Where and when is Diyala vs Erbil played?
- Diyala vs Erbil is played on May 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Al Ba'quba Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.