Dongen vs Excelsior Maassluis: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Biezen, Dongen
The Footlab model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Dongen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dongen vs Excelsior Maassluis?
Excelsior Maassluis starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,816 vs 1,676).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dongen have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Excelsior Maassluis have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | EVV(away) | 3-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zwaluwen(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Heerjansdam(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Heerjansdam(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| May 30, 2026 | SVV Scheveningen(away) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Groene Ster(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | UDI '19(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 2-1 | Tweede Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Dongen score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior Maassluis score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dongen | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Excelsior Maassluis | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dongen sit 2nd in Derde Divisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Excelsior Maassluis sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dongen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dongen vs Excelsior Maassluis?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Dongen.
- Where and when is Dongen vs Excelsior Maassluis played?
- Dongen vs Excelsior Maassluis is played on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Biezen, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.