Dongen vs Groene Ster: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Biezen, Dongen
The Footlab model makes Dongen the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dongen vs Groene Ster?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Dongen (1,676) and Groene Ster (1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dongen have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Groene Ster have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | EVV(away) | 3-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zwaluwen(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Heerjansdam(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Heerjansdam(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| May 30, 2026 | SVV Scheveningen(away) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | ASWH(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | TOGB(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 9, 2026 | Kloetinge(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Dongen win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Groene Ster win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2023 | Dongen 1-2 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Groene Ster 0-0 Dongen | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Mar 20, 2022 | Dongen 2-1 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Feb 13, 2022 | Groene Ster 2-2 Dongen | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Groene Ster 1-1 Dongen | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
Last archived meeting: Dongen vs Groene Ster on May 21, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Dongen score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Groene Ster score 1.2 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dongen | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Groene Ster | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dongen sit 2nd in Derde Divisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Groene Ster sit 17th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dongen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 17 | Groene Ster | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dongen vs Groene Ster?
- The Footlab model makes Dongen the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Dongen vs Groene Ster played?
- Dongen vs Groene Ster is played on October 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Biezen, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.