Dunarea Calarasi vs Progresul Fundulea: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 4Group 4 - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Complex Municipal Dunărea Teren 1 Ion Comșa, Călăraşi
The Footlab model makes Progresul Fundulea the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Dunarea Calarasi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunarea Calarasi vs Progresul Fundulea?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Dunarea Calarasi (1,448) and Progresul Fundulea (1,456).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunarea Calarasi have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Progresul Fundulea have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | CS Afumati(home) | 0-3 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Înainte Modelu(home) | 2-0 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gloria Băneasa(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Flacăra Moreni(home) | 2-7 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Ştefăneşti(away) | 1-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Progresul Spartac(away) | 0-2 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Agigea(away) | 2-0 | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Axiopolis(home) | 3-1 | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| May 2, 2026 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja(away) | 6-2 | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Gloria Băneasa(home) | 4-1 | Liga III - Serie 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dunarea Calarasi win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Progresul Fundulea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Progresul Fundulea 1-3 Dunarea Calarasi | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Dunarea Calarasi 1-1 Progresul Fundulea | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| May 10, 2025 | Progresul Fundulea 1-1 Dunarea Calarasi | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Dunarea Calarasi 0-0 Progresul Fundulea | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Progresul Fundulea 0-1 Dunarea Calarasi | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Dunarea Calarasi 1-1 Progresul Fundulea | Liga III - Serie 3 |
Last archived meeting: Progresul Fundulea vs Dunarea Calarasi on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dunarea Calarasi score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Progresul Fundulea score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunarea Calarasi | 1.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Progresul Fundulea | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunarea Calarasi vs Progresul Fundulea?
- The Footlab model makes Progresul Fundulea the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Dunarea Calarasi.
- Where and when is Dunarea Calarasi vs Progresul Fundulea played?
- Dunarea Calarasi vs Progresul Fundulea is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Complex Municipal Dunărea Teren 1 Ion Comșa, in the Liga III - Serie 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.