Dunkerque vs Metz: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 10Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque
The Footlab model makes Dunkerque the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Metz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunkerque vs Metz?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Dunkerque (1,862) and Metz (1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunkerque have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Metz have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Montpellier(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Reims(away) | 3-3 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Grenoble(home) | 4-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KV Mechelen(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guingamp(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Dunkerque win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Metz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025 | Metz 1-0 Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Dunkerque 2-3 Metz | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Metz 2-0 Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 7, 2018 | Dunkerque 2-4 Metz | Coupe de France |
How many goals should we expect?
Dunkerque score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Metz score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Metz | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dunkerque sit 7th in Ligue 2 (4 points from 3 matches) and Metz sit 5th (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Metz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Dunkerque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunkerque vs Metz?
- The Footlab model makes Dunkerque the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Metz.
- Where and when is Dunkerque vs Metz played?
- Dunkerque vs Metz is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Marcel-Tribut, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.