Durango vs Deportivo Alavés III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tabira, Durango
The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Deportivo Alavés III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Deportivo Alavés III?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Durango (1,740) and Deportivo Alavés III (1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Deportivo Alavés III have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Portugalete(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Zarautz(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Durango win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Deportivo Alavés III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III 3-1 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Durango 0-1 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Durango 0-1 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Deportivo Alavés III 1-0 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Deportivo Alavés III 1-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Durango 1-0 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Alavés III vs Durango on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Alavés III score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Deportivo Alavés III | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (44 points from 34 matches) and Deportivo Alavés III sit 9th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés III | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57 | 40 | 53 |
| 11 | Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Deportivo Alavés III?
- The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Deportivo Alavés III.
- Where and when is Durango vs Deportivo Alavés III played?
- Durango vs Deportivo Alavés III is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tabira, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.