Aretxabaleta vs Erandio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Erandio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aretxabaleta wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,046 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Erandio?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Aretxabaleta (1,762) and Erandio (1,726).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aretxabaleta vs Erandio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Erandio
Not enough data to predict the Erandio lineup.
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 07:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Erandio have 2, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Amurrio Club(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Erandio score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Erandio | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 2/7 | 2/7 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (11 points from 6 matches) and Erandio sit 15th (6 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Erandio | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
A question about Aretxabaleta vs Erandio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs Erandio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Erandio.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs Erandio played?
- Aretxabaleta vs Erandio is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.