Leioa vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leioa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,383 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Derio?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Leioa (1,826) and Derio (1,782).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leioa vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leioa
Not enough data to predict the Leioa lineup.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Leioa wins, 1 draw, 1 Derio win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Leioa 1-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Leioa 0-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Derio 1-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Leioa 2-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Derio 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.6 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.6 | 2.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leioa sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (12 points from 6 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
A question about Leioa vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Derio.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Derio played?
- Leioa vs Derio is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.