Durango vs Leones Negros UDG: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 6, 2026 at 03:05 AM (UTC)Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango
The Footlab AI model makes Durango the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Leones Negros UDG. The most likely score is 1-1. If Durango wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,444 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Leones Negros UDG?
Durango starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (2,015 vs 1,910).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Durango vs Leones Negros UDG
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Durango
4-3-3- 27Juan Angulo
- 17J. Reyes
- 7L. Gutiérrez
- 5É. Cantú
- 35S. Flores
- 16R. Domínguez
- 30A. Escoboza
- 4J. Múñoz
- 3E. González
- 21D. Oteo
- 33A. Pelaez
Leones Negros UDG
4-3-3- 9L. Razo
- 20Óscar Gil
- 10J. Brigido
- 34S. Hernández
- 6J. Marchand
- 15A. Carreón
- 5U. Torres
- 24J. Agüayo
- 161J. Escalante
- 33L. Sepúlveda
- 1O. Cantú
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 04:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Leones Negros UDG have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Monarcas(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 5-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Tepatitlán(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 6-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Durango win, 0 draws, 2 Leones Negros UDG wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Durango 1-2 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 8, 2023 | Leones Negros UDG 1-0 Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 18, 2022 | Durango 1-0 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Durango vs Leones Negros UDG on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Leones Negros UDG score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Leones Negros UDG | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 7th in Liga de Expansión MX (24 points from 15 matches) and Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd (30 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 30 |
| 7 | Durango | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 24 |
A question about Durango vs Leones Negros UDG?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Leones Negros UDG?
- The Footlab AI model makes Durango the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Leones Negros UDG.
- Where and when is Durango vs Leones Negros UDG played?
- Durango vs Leones Negros UDG is played on November 6, 2026 at 03:05 AM (UTC) at Estadio Francisco Zarco, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.