Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 5, 2026 at 01:05 AM (UTC)Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
The Footlab AI model makes Tlaxcala the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for CA La Paz. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tlaxcala wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,444 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Tlaxcala (1,836) and CA La Paz (1,922).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tlaxcala
4-3-3- 24E. Robles
- 11D. Álvarez
- 9Christian Henrique Mota de Oliveira Silva
- 6A. Iniestra
- 16M. Ramírez
- 12J. Freyfeld
- 1I. Govea
- 3E. Santos
- 21E. García
- 29M. Trejo
- 22N. Bedolla
CA La Paz
3-4-2-1- 77J. Alonzo
- 20M. García
- 5E. Torres
- 25F. Illescas
- 13É. Alaffita
- 6D. Hernández
- 10M. Barragán
- 21C. Robles
- 28U. Zurita
- 16Yahir Del Aguila
- 33G. Alcalá
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 07:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tlaxcala have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; CA La Paz have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 17, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Piratas(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 25, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Tapatío(away) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tlaxcala wins, 3 draws, 3 CA La Paz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | CA La Paz 2-2 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 8, 2026 | CA La Paz 2-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Tlaxcala 3-3 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CA La Paz 4-4 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Tlaxcala 0-2 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Tlaxcala 2-3 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala on Oct 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tlaxcala score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; CA La Paz score 2.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| CA La Paz | 2.4 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tlaxcala sit 8th in Liga de Expansión MX (22 points from 15 matches) and CA La Paz sit 1st (30 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 30 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 27 | 22 |
A question about Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tlaxcala the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for CA La Paz.
- Where and when is Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz played?
- Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz is played on November 5, 2026 at 01:05 AM (UTC) at Estadio Tlahuicole, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.