Eastleigh vs Southend: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 30, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Silverlake Stadium, Eastleigh, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 68%, against 18% for a draw and 14% for Eastleigh. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eastleigh vs Southend?
Southend starts as the favourite with a 254-point Elo edge (1,945 vs 1,690).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eastleigh have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Southend have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 3-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(away) | 0-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gateshead(home) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Farnham Town(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Altrincham(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aveley(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Eastleigh win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Southend win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | Southend 4-1 Eastleigh | National League |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Eastleigh 2-1 Southend | National League |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Eastleigh 1-2 Southend | National League |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Eastleigh 0-1 Southend | FA Cup |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Southend 2-0 Eastleigh | National League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Eastleigh 0-1 Southend | National League |
Last archived meeting: Southend vs Eastleigh on Jan 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Eastleigh score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Southend score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Southend | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eastleigh sit 8th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and Southend sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Eastleigh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eastleigh vs Southend?
- The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 68%, against 18% for a draw and 14% for Eastleigh.
- Where and when is Eastleigh vs Southend played?
- Eastleigh vs Southend is played on September 30, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Silverlake Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.