Ebolitana vs Nocerina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 18Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Ebolitana the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Nocerina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ebolitana wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,823 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ebolitana vs Nocerina?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Ebolitana (1,687) and Nocerina (1,747).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ebolitana vs Nocerina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ebolitana
Not enough data to predict the Ebolitana lineup.
Nocerina
Not enough data to predict the Nocerina lineup.
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 09:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Ebolitana have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Nocerina have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 18, 2026 | USD Palmese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Martina Franca(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ischia(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Melfi(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Gladiator(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brindisi(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Turris(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Melfi(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Ebolitana wins, 0 draws, 1 Nocerina win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Nocerina 2-1 Ebolitana | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Ebolitana score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 9; Nocerina score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebolitana | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1 | 5/9 | 4/9 |
| Nocerina | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ebolitana sit 13th in Serie D - Girone H (9 points from 9 matches) and Nocerina sit 8th (13 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nocerina | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
A question about Ebolitana vs Nocerina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ebolitana vs Nocerina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ebolitana the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Nocerina.
- Where and when is Ebolitana vs Nocerina played?
- Ebolitana vs Nocerina is played on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.