EC São Bernardo vs Comercial: prediction and stats
Copa PaulistaRound of 16Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin, São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes EC São Bernardo the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Comercial. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win EC São Bernardo vs Comercial?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate EC São Bernardo (1,655) and Comercial (1,622).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, EC São Bernardo have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Comercial have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Santo André(away) | 0-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 15, 2026 | São José EC(home) | 2-3 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 9, 2026 | São Caetano(home) | 2-0 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 1, 2026 | São Caetano(away) | 4-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Jul 25, 2026 | São José EC(away) | 1-2 | Copa Paulista |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Noroeste(away) | 3-4 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 18, 2026 | XV de Piracicaba(home) | 0-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 8, 2026 | União São João(away) | 1-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Jul 31, 2026 | União São João(home) | 0-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Jul 25, 2026 | XV de Piracicaba(away) | 2-0 | Copa Paulista |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 EC São Bernardo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Comercial win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | Comercial 0-0 EC São Bernardo | Paulista - A3 |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Comercial 4-2 EC São Bernardo | Paulista - A3 |
| Nov 7, 2020 | EC São Bernardo 3-1 Comercial | Paulista - A3 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | Comercial 1-3 EC São Bernardo | Paulista - A3 |
| Feb 15, 2020 | EC São Bernardo 3-0 Comercial | Paulista - A3 |
Last archived meeting: Comercial vs EC São Bernardo on Mar 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
EC São Bernardo score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Comercial score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EC São Bernardo | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Comercial | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for EC São Bernardo vs Comercial?
- The Footlab model makes EC São Bernardo the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Comercial.
- Where and when is EC São Bernardo vs Comercial played?
- EC São Bernardo vs Comercial is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin, in the Copa Paulista.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.