Primavera SP vs São Caetano: prediction and stats
Copa PaulistaRound of 16Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Ítalo Mário Limongi, Indaiatuba, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Primavera SP the favourite at 56%, against 28% for a draw and 17% for São Caetano. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Primavera SP vs São Caetano?
Primavera SP starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (1,784 vs 1,593).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Primavera SP have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; São Caetano have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paulista(home) | 1-2 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Oeste(away) | 2-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 2-2 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 1-0 | Copa Paulista |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Oeste(home) | 2-0 | Copa Paulista |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | São José EC(away) | 0-0 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santo André(home) | 0-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 9, 2026 | EC São Bernardo(away) | 0-2 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 1, 2026 | EC São Bernardo(home) | 1-4 | Copa Paulista |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Santo André(away) | 0-0 | Copa Paulista |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Primavera SP win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 São Caetano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | São Caetano 0-1 Primavera SP | Paulista - A2 |
| Feb 2, 2022 | Primavera SP 2-3 São Caetano | Paulista - A2 |
Last archived meeting: São Caetano vs Primavera SP on Jan 14, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Primavera SP score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; São Caetano score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primavera SP | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| São Caetano | 1.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Primavera SP vs São Caetano?
- The Footlab model makes Primavera SP the favourite at 56%, against 28% for a draw and 17% for São Caetano.
- Where and when is Primavera SP vs São Caetano played?
- Primavera SP vs São Caetano is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Ítalo Mário Limongi, in the Copa Paulista.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.