Paulista vs Grêmio Prudente: prediction and stats
Copa PaulistaRound of 16Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra, Jundiaí, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Paulista the favourite at 52%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Grêmio Prudente. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paulista vs Grêmio Prudente?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Paulista (1,705) and Grêmio Prudente (1,651).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paulista have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Grêmio Prudente have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Primavera SP(away) | 2-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-0 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Oeste(away) | 1-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Oeste(home) | 0-2 | Copa Paulista |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 1-3 | Copa Paulista |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Marília(home) | 1-0 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bandeirante SP(away) | 0-1 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Linense(away) | 2-5 | Copa Paulista |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Linense(home) | 0-0 | Copa Paulista |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Bandeirante SP(home) | 1-0 | Copa Paulista |
How many goals should we expect?
Paulista score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Grêmio Prudente score 0.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulista | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Grêmio Prudente | 0.7 | 1.0 | 8 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paulista vs Grêmio Prudente?
- The Footlab model makes Paulista the favourite at 52%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Grêmio Prudente.
- Where and when is Paulista vs Grêmio Prudente played?
- Paulista vs Grêmio Prudente is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra, in the Copa Paulista.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.