El Palmar vs Águilas II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar, El Palmar
The Footlab model makes Águilas II the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for El Palmar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win El Palmar vs Águilas II?
Águilas II starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,820 vs 1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Palmar have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Águilas II have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | SFC Minerva(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palmar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Unión Molinense(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 El Palmar win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Águilas II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Águilas II 2-1 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | El Palmar 0-0 Águilas II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | El Palmar 1-1 Águilas II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Águilas II 2-3 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Águilas II vs El Palmar on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
El Palmar score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Águilas II score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Palmar | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Águilas II | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
El Palmar sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (32 points from 34 matches) and Águilas II sit 7th (52 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Águilas II | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 47 | 42 | 52 |
| 14 | El Palmar | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 48 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for El Palmar vs Águilas II?
- The Footlab model makes Águilas II the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for El Palmar.
- Where and when is El Palmar vs Águilas II played?
- El Palmar vs Águilas II is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 13, 2026Los GarresvsSantomera
- Sep 13, 2026SFC MinervavsCartagena LU II
- Sep 13, 2026UCAM Murcia IIvsBalsicas Atlético
- Sep 13, 2026Bala AzulvsMazarrón FC
- Sep 13, 2026AlcantarillavsAtlético Pulpileño
- Sep 13, 2026Unión MolinensevsSan Javier
- Sep 13, 2026AlgarvsBullas Deportivo
- Sep 13, 2026Santa CruzvsOlímpico Totana