Alcantarilla vs El Palmar: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero, Alcantarilla
The Footlab model makes Alcantarilla the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for El Palmar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcantarilla vs El Palmar?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Alcantarilla (1,590) and El Palmar (1,639).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcantarilla have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; El Palmar have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 4, 2025 | Águilas II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Lorca Deportiva(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Santomera(home) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | SFC Minerva(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Alcantarilla win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 El Palmar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | El Palmar 1-1 Alcantarilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Alcantarilla 0-4 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Mar 31, 2024 | El Palmar 0-0 Alcantarilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Alcantarilla 2-3 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 1, 2023 | El Palmar 2-1 Alcantarilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Alcantarilla 1-1 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: El Palmar vs Alcantarilla on Jan 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Alcantarilla score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; El Palmar score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcantarilla | 0.5 | 1.6 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| El Palmar | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | El Palmar | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 48 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcantarilla vs El Palmar?
- The Footlab model makes Alcantarilla the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for El Palmar.
- Where and when is Alcantarilla vs El Palmar played?
- Alcantarilla vs El Palmar is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 20, 2026Atlético PulpileñovsBullas Deportivo
- Sep 20, 2026Mazarrón FCvsSanta Cruz
- Sep 20, 2026Olímpico TotanavsUnión Molinense
- Sep 20, 2026Cartagena LU IIvsUCAM Murcia II
- Sep 20, 2026Balsicas AtléticovsLos Garres
- Sep 20, 2026SantomeravsAlgar
- Sep 20, 2026Águilas IIvsBala Azul
- Sep 20, 2026San JaviervsSFC Minerva