Erandio vs Pasaia KE: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Erandio the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 1-1. If Erandio wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,481 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erandio vs Pasaia KE?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Erandio (1,697) and Pasaia KE (1,629).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Erandio vs Pasaia KE
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Erandio
Not enough data to predict the Erandio lineup.
Pasaia KE
Not enough data to predict the Pasaia KE lineup.
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 02:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Erandio have 2 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Pasaia KE have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Touring(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Erandio win, 0 draws, 0 Pasaia KE wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Pasaia KE 0-2 Erandio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Erandio score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 9; Pasaia KE score 1.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erandio | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 3/9 | 3/9 |
| Pasaia KE | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erandio sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (6 points from 9 matches) and Pasaia KE sit 13th (10 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pasaia KE | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 10 |
| 16 | Erandio | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 6 |
A question about Erandio vs Pasaia KE?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erandio vs Pasaia KE?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erandio the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Erandio vs Pasaia KE played?
- Erandio vs Pasaia KE is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.