Real Sociedad III vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo José Luis Orbegozo, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Sociedad III wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,771 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad III vs Derio?
A very open match: only 1 Elo point separates Real Sociedad III (1,793) and Derio (1,794).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Sociedad III vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Sociedad III
Not enough data to predict the Real Sociedad III lineup.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 01:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad III have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Amurrio Club(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Touring(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Real Sociedad III wins, 1 draw, 2 Derio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Derio 0-0 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Derio 3-1 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Real Sociedad III 0-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Derio vs Real Sociedad III on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad III score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad III | 2.2 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Derio | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad III sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (15 points from 9 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad III | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 15 |
A question about Real Sociedad III vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad III vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Derio.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad III vs Derio played?
- Real Sociedad III vs Derio is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo José Luis Orbegozo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.