Santurtzi vs Beasain: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Jorge, Santurtzi
The Footlab model makes Beasain the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Santurtzi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santurtzi vs Beasain?
Beasain starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (1,879 vs 1,684).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santurtzi have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Beasain have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Zarautz(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Touring(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Zaragoza II(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Náxara(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ebro(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Santurtzi win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Beasain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | Santurtzi 1-3 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Beasain 3-0 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 1, 2019 | Beasain 0-0 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Santurtzi score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Beasain score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santurtzi | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Beasain | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32 | 45 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santurtzi vs Beasain?
- The Footlab model makes Beasain the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Santurtzi.
- Where and when is Santurtzi vs Beasain played?
- Santurtzi vs Beasain is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Jorge, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.