Leioa vs Lagun Onak: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Lagun Onak. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Lagun Onak?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Leioa (1,837) and Lagun Onak (1,785).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Lagun Onak have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leioa win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Lagun Onak win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa 2-3 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Lagun Onak 1-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Leioa 2-0 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Lagun Onak 0-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Lagun Onak 2-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Leioa 1-2 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lagun Onak score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Lagun Onak | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leioa sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (61 points from 34 matches) and Lagun Onak sit 4th (57 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 53 | 34 | 57 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Lagun Onak?
- The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Lagun Onak.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Lagun Onak played?
- Leioa vs Lagun Onak is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.