Leioa vs Lagun Onak: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Lagun Onak. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leioa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,783 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Lagun Onak?
On Elo ratings, Leioa has 1,861 points and Lagun Onak 1,768.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leioa vs Lagun Onak
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leioa
Not enough data to predict the Leioa lineup.
Lagun Onak
Not enough data to predict the Lagun Onak lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 01:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Lagun Onak have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Durango(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leioa win, 2 draws, 3 Lagun Onak wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lagun Onak 1-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa 2-3 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Lagun Onak 1-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Leioa 2-0 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Lagun Onak 0-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Lagun Onak 2-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lagun Onak score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.6 | 1.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Lagun Onak | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leioa sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (13 points from 7 matches) and Lagun Onak sit 14th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 13 |
| 14 | Lagun Onak | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
A question about Leioa vs Lagun Onak?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Lagun Onak?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Lagun Onak.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Lagun Onak played?
- Leioa vs Lagun Onak is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.