Aretxabaleta vs Touring: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Touring. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Touring?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Aretxabaleta (1,692) and Touring (1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Touring have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 16, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Aretxabaleta win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Touring win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Touring 2-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 1-1 Touring | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Touring 0-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 3-2 Touring | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Touring vs Aretxabaleta on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 2.0 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Touring score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| Touring | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (45 points from 34 matches) and Touring sit 5th (57 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Touring | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 35 | 57 |
| 10 | Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 61 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs Touring?
- The Footlab model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Touring.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs Touring played?
- Aretxabaleta vs Touring is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.