Ermis Exochi vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4Group 4 - 11Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Ermis Exochi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ermis Exochi vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou?
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,670 vs 1,537).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ermis Exochi have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Alexandreia(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Apollon Pontou(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Veria(home) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Pierikos(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou(away) | 2-5 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Elassona(away) | 3-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 14, 2026 | Panthrakikos(home) | 3-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 10, 2026 | Apollon Pontou(away) | 2-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 3, 2026 | Elassona(home) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Panthrakikos(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Ermis Exochi win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou 5-2 Ermis Exochi | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou 5-1 Ermis Exochi | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Ermis Exochi 2-1 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou vs Ermis Exochi on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ermis Exochi score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ermis Exochi | 1.4 | 1.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2.2 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ermis Exochi vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou?
- The Footlab model makes Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Ermis Exochi.
- Where and when is Ermis Exochi vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou played?
- Ermis Exochi vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou is played on December 2, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.