Karitsa vs Iraklis Larissa: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4Group 4 - 11Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Gipedo Karίtsas, Karitsa
The Footlab model makes Karitsa the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Iraklis Larissa. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karitsa vs Iraklis Larissa?
Karitsa starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,634 vs 1,480).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karitsa have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Iraklis Larissa have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2021 | Aetos Makrychoriou(away) | 2-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| May 30, 2021 | Anagennisi Karditsas(home) | 1-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| May 26, 2021 | Elassona(away) | 2-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| May 23, 2021 | Fikis(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| May 16, 2021 | Iraklis Larissa(away) | 2-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2023 | Veria(away) | 0-3 | Super League 2 |
| Jun 10, 2023 | Makedonikos Neapolis(home) | 0-0 | Super League 2 |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Panathinaikos II(away) | 1-3 | Super League 2 |
| May 28, 2023 | Panserraikos(home) | 2-0 | Super League 2 |
| May 19, 2023 | Iraklis 1908(away) | 1-4 | Super League 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Karitsa win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Iraklis Larissa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2021 | Iraklis Larissa 1-2 Karitsa | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Dec 8, 2019 | Iraklis Larissa 2-0 Karitsa | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Iraklis Larissa vs Karitsa on May 16, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Karitsa score 2.0 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Iraklis Larissa score 0.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karitsa | 2.0 | 0.5 | 11 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Iraklis Larissa | 0.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karitsa vs Iraklis Larissa?
- The Footlab model makes Karitsa the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Iraklis Larissa.
- Where and when is Karitsa vs Iraklis Larissa played?
- Karitsa vs Iraklis Larissa is played on December 2, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Gipedo Karίtsas, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.