Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs Tasmania Berlin played?

Erzgebirge Aue vs Tasmania Berlin is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Erzgebirge Aue vs Tasmania Berlin: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - NordostNordost - 19Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue

Erzgebirge Aue

Tasmania Berlin

The Footlab model makes Erzgebirge Aue the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Tasmania Berlin. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Erzgebirge Aue vs Tasmania Berlin?

A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Erzgebirge Aue (1,840) and Tasmania Berlin (1,818).

Erzgebirge Aue win44 %

Draw25 %

Tasmania Berlin win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erzgebirge Aue have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Tasmania Berlin have 8, 0 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Erzgebirge Aue
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim(home)	0-4	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Chemnitzer FC(away)	1-3	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 9, 2026	BFC Preussen(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 6, 2026	BFC Dynamo(home)	3-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 31, 2026	Tasmania Berlin(away)	2-0	Regionalliga - Nordost

Tasmania Berlin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Lokomotive Leipzig(home)	2-3	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 8, 2026	Luckenwalde(away)	2-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 5, 2026	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt(away)	0-6	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 31, 2026	Erzgebirge Aue(home)	0-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 25, 2026	Magdeburg II(away)	1-5	Regionalliga - Nordost

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Erzgebirge Aue win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Tasmania Berlin win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 31, 2026	Tasmania Berlin 0-2 Erzgebirge Aue	Regionalliga - Nordost

Last archived meeting: Tasmania Berlin vs Erzgebirge Aue on Jul 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Erzgebirge Aue score 2.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tasmania Berlin score 2.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Erzgebirge Aue	2.5	1.8	4	10/15	12/15
Tasmania Berlin	2.3	2.5	3	9/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Erzgebirge Aue sit 5th in Regionalliga - Nordost (10 points from 5 matches) and Tasmania Berlin sit 16th (3 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Erzgebirge Aue	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
16	Tasmania Berlin	5	1	0	4	6	18	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Erzgebirge Aue vs Tasmania Berlin?: The Footlab model makes Erzgebirge Aue the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Tasmania Berlin.
Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs Tasmania Berlin played?: Erzgebirge Aue vs Tasmania Berlin is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.