ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar, Hammam-Sousse
The Footlab model calls this one tight: 32% for ES Hammam-Sousse, 35% for a draw, 33% for Stade Tunisien. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien?
Stade Tunisien starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,896 vs 1,732).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Hammam-Sousse have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Stade Tunisien have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 29, 2026 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 2 |
| May 11, 2026 | CS Hammam-Lif(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| May 1, 2026 | Sfax Railways(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Kerkennah(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 13, 2026 | AS Gabes(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | US Ben Guerdane(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Club Africain(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 ES Hammam-Sousse win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Stade Tunisien win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2023 | Stade Tunisien 2-1 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 2, 2023 | ES Hammam-Sousse 1-2 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ES Hammam-Sousse 2-1 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Stade Tunisien 2-0 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 12, 2013 | ES Hammam-Sousse 1-1 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 10, 2012 | Stade Tunisien 3-0 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Stade Tunisien vs ES Hammam-Sousse on May 21, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
ES Hammam-Sousse score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Stade Tunisien score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 1.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Stade Tunisien | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Hammam-Sousse sit 7th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Stade Tunisien sit 8th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Stade Tunisien | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien?
- The Footlab model calls this one tight: 32% for ES Hammam-Sousse, 35% for a draw, 33% for Stade Tunisien.
- Where and when is ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien played?
- ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.