ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 5Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, Métlaoui
The Footlab model calls this one tight: 29% for ES Metlaoui, 39% for a draw, 32% for Stade Tunisien. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien?
Stade Tunisien starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,896 vs 1,779).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Metlaoui have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Stade Tunisien have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Africain(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| May 14, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | US Monastirienne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 13, 2026 | AS Gabes(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | US Ben Guerdane(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Club Africain(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 ES Metlaoui win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Stade Tunisien win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | ES Metlaoui 0-0 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Stade Tunisien 2-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ES Metlaoui 0-0 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Stade Tunisien 1-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| May 27, 2023 | ES Metlaoui 2-1 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 26, 2023 | Stade Tunisien 1-1 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Metlaoui score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stade Tunisien score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 18% probability of over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Metlaoui | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Stade Tunisien | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Metlaoui sit 15th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Stade Tunisien sit 8th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Stade Tunisien | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien?
- The Footlab model calls this one tight: 29% for ES Metlaoui, 39% for a draw, 32% for Stade Tunisien.
- Where and when is ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien played?
- ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 18% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.