ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, Métlaoui
The Footlab model makes ES Metlaoui the favourite at 45%, against 33% for a draw and 22% for ES Hammam-Sousse. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate ES Metlaoui (1,779) and ES Hammam-Sousse (1,732).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Metlaoui have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; ES Hammam-Sousse have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Africain(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| May 14, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | US Monastirienne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 29, 2026 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 2 |
| May 11, 2026 | CS Hammam-Lif(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| May 1, 2026 | Sfax Railways(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Kerkennah(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 ES Metlaoui win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 ES Hammam-Sousse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2023 | ES Metlaoui 1-2 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 12, 2023 | ES Hammam-Sousse 0-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| May 23, 2022 | ES Hammam-Sousse 2-1 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| May 7, 2022 | ES Metlaoui 2-1 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 13, 2022 | ES Hammam-Sousse 1-1 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 3, 2021 | ES Metlaoui 1-0 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse on Apr 30, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
ES Metlaoui score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; ES Hammam-Sousse score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Metlaoui | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 1.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Metlaoui sit 15th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and ES Hammam-Sousse sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
- The Footlab model makes ES Metlaoui the favourite at 45%, against 33% for a draw and 22% for ES Hammam-Sousse.
- Where and when is ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse played?
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.