ES Tunis vs AS Marsa: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, Radès
The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 70%, against 21% for a draw and 8% for AS Marsa. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Tunis vs AS Marsa?
ES Tunis is a heavy favourite: 2,074 Elo points against 1,746 — a 328-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Tunis have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; AS Marsa have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Sahel(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 21, 2026 | BS Bouhajla(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CA Bizertin(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 12, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | CA Bizertin(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | ES Zarzis(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 ES Tunis win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 AS Marsa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | ES Tunis 1-0 AS Marsa | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | AS Marsa 0-3 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 5, 2023 | AS Marsa 0-1 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 19, 2023 | ES Tunis 1-0 AS Marsa | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
ES Tunis score 1.4 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; AS Marsa score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Tunis | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| AS Marsa | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Tunis sit 4th in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and AS Marsa sit 13th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ES Tunis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | AS Marsa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Tunis vs AS Marsa?
- The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 70%, against 21% for a draw and 8% for AS Marsa.
- Where and when is ES Tunis vs AS Marsa played?
- ES Tunis vs AS Marsa is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.