Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis FC: prediction and stats
Persian Gulf Pro LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Azadi Stadium, Tehran
The Footlab model makes Esteghlal FC the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Persepolis FC. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis FC?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Esteghlal FC (1,857) and Persepolis FC (1,849).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Esteghlal FC have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Persepolis FC have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sepahan FC(home) | 2-0 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Nassaji Mazandaran(away) | 1-0 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mes Shahr-e Babak(home) | 4-0 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Fajr Sepasi(home) | 2-1 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Mes Rafsanjan(away) | 1-0 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tractor Sazi(away) | 0-1 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Esteghlal Khuzestan(home) | 4-1 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shams Azar Qazvin(away) | 2-0 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Kheybar Khorramabad(home) | 1-2 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Gol Gohar(away) | 1-3 | Persian Gulf Pro League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Esteghlal FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Persepolis FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | Persepolis FC 0-0 Esteghlal FC | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Persepolis FC 2-1 Esteghlal FC | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Esteghlal FC 0-1 Persepolis FC | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Mar 13, 2024 | Esteghlal FC 0-0 Persepolis FC | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| Dec 14, 2023 | Persepolis FC 1-1 Esteghlal FC | Persian Gulf Pro League |
| May 31, 2023 | Esteghlal FC 1-2 Persepolis FC | Hazfi Cup |
Last archived meeting: Persepolis FC vs Esteghlal FC on Dec 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Esteghlal FC score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Persepolis FC score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteghlal FC | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Persepolis FC | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Esteghlal FC sit 1st in Persian Gulf Pro League (9 points from 3 matches) and Persepolis FC sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteghlal FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Persepolis FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis FC?
- The Footlab model makes Esteghlal FC the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Persepolis FC.
- Where and when is Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis FC played?
- Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis FC is played on September 2, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Azadi Stadium, in the Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.