Estradense vs Arenteiro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada, A Estrada
The Footlab model makes Estradense the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Arenteiro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estradense vs Arenteiro?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Estradense (1,809) and Arenteiro (1,759).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estradense have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Arenteiro have 0, 4 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pontevedra(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 16, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Barco(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Compostela(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Ponferradina(home) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Guadalajara(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 0-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Osasuna II(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Estradense win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Arenteiro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2021 | Arenteiro 1-0 Estradense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 15, 2020 | Estradense 1-1 Arenteiro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Mar 1, 2020 | Estradense 0-0 Arenteiro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Arenteiro 2-1 Estradense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Arenteiro vs Estradense on Feb 6, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Estradense score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Arenteiro score 0.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estradense | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Arenteiro | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Estradense | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 46 | 33 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estradense vs Arenteiro?
- The Footlab model makes Estradense the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Arenteiro.
- Where and when is Estradense vs Arenteiro played?
- Estradense vs Arenteiro is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.