Estrela vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estrela wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,373 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Rio Ave?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Estrela (2,051) and Rio Ave (2,069).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estrela vs Rio Ave
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Rio Ave have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Estrela win, 2 draws, 3 Rio Ave wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Rio Ave 2-1 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Estrela 1-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| May 5, 2025 | Rio Ave 2-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Estrela 1-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Estrela 2-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrela sit 10th in Primeira Liga (10 points from 8 matches) and Rio Ave sit 14th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
A question about Estrela vs Rio Ave?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Rio Ave played?
- Estrela vs Rio Ave is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.