Santa Clara vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
The Footlab AI model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Santa Clara wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Arouca?
On Elo ratings, Santa Clara has 2,191 points and Arouca 2,156.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Santa Clara vs Arouca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Santa Clara
4-3-3- 9Gonçalo Paciência
- 70Vinícius Lopes
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
- 6Pedro Ferreira
- 8José Luís Rocha Tavares
- 20Tiago Ribeiro
- 5Guilherme Romão
- 4Pedro Pacheco
- 21Emanuel Fernandes
- 42Lucas Soares
- 1Lucas França
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Clara have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Arouca have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Santa Clara wins, 2 draws, 1 Arouca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara 3-0 Arouca | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Arouca 2-2 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Santa Clara 0-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Santa Clara 2-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Arouca vs Santa Clara on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Clara score 1.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1.7 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Clara sit 4th in Primeira Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Arouca sit 5th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
A question about Santa Clara vs Arouca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Arouca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Santa Clara vs Arouca played?
- Santa Clara vs Arouca is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio de São Miguel, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.