Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ivailo, Veliko Târnovo
The Footlab model makes Etar Veliko Tarnovo the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Etar Veliko Tarnovo (1,652) and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (1,690).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etar Veliko Tarnovo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-2 | Second League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Marek(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Yantra 2019(home) | 2-1 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nesebar(away) | 5-1 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hebar 1918(away) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | CSKA Sofia II(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Beroe(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Second League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3-3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | Second League |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2-0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Cup |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2-3 Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Etar Veliko Tarnovo score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chernomorets 1919 Burgas score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etar Veliko Tarnovo sit 2nd in Second League (10 points from 5 matches) and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 15 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
- The Footlab model makes Etar Veliko Tarnovo the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.
- Where and when is Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas played?
- Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ivailo, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.